The Bitcoin price forecast remains uncertain as BTC holds above the crucial support at $103,100. With the US reportedly preparing a strike on Iran, investor sentiment is fragile. Traders are closely watching the 50-day EMA, which currently serves as dynamic support.
Why This Bitcoin Price Forecast Matters Now
Bitcoin trades at around $104,700 during the European session. A daily close below $103,100 could trigger a sharp decline toward $100,000. This support level has held multiple times, making it a key zone for any Bitcoin price prediction.
Geopolitical Tensions: US Prepares Strike on Iran
According to Bloomberg, US officials are preparing for military action against Iran. The news follows an ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel, raising fears of a wider Middle East war.
📉 Asian markets reacted negatively, yet Bitcoin has remained somewhat stable. However, if tensions escalate, BTC could face heavy volatility and breakdown from current levels.
Bitcoin ETF Inflows Continue Despite Market Fears
Despite rising geopolitical tensions, institutional demand for Bitcoin remains strong. On Wednesday alone, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $389.57 million in inflows, marking eight straight days of gains.
➡️ This supports a bullish case in the Bitcoin price forecast, as large inflows often reflect confidence from smart money.
BTC Technical Analysis: Bearish Signals Building
RSI and MACD Hint at Weak Momentum
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 47—below neutral—while the MACD shows a bearish crossover and increasing red histogram bars.
If BTC closes below the 50-day EMA, located at $103,100, this could confirm a breakdown. The next target is the psychological level of $100,000.
Fed Holds Rates Steady Amid Political Drama
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve left rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell cited inflation and labor market data as key factors for future decisions.
Shortly after, former President Donald Trump posted criticism on Truth Social, saying:
“Too Late—Powell is the WORST. A real dummy, who’s costing America $Billions!”
This public conflict adds further uncertainty to an already tense market landscape.
Final Bitcoin Price Forecast: Breakdown or Bounce?
BTC’s fate may hinge on two major forces:
Geopolitical escalation (e.g. US-Iran conflict)
Institutional buying via ETF inflows
If support at $103,100 holds, Bitcoin may resume upward momentum. If it fails, a sharp drop to $100,000 or lower could follow.
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Stay alert. This is a crucial moment for traders and investors alike.
